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Terms Index Q4 2026: what will drive your service providers’ prices in 2027

Wages, surcharges and raw material prices determine what your service providers will demand in 2027. Here are the key figures with sources, so that you can check price increases.

Figures at a glance

What drives prices in 2027 Change in cost drivers compared with the previous year. Hatched: range while the pay agreement is still open. Sources in the table.
  • Diesel, GermanyQ3 2026 average compared with 2025. Courier, parcel, waste disposal, fleet

    +38.7%

  • Commercial cleaning, Germany, wage group 12027, pay agreement still open: from the employers’ offer to the IG BAU demand

    +1.8 to +13.3%

  • Statutory minimum wage, Germanyfrom 1 January 2027. Laundry, logistics, basic services

    +5.0%

  • Security guarding, Berlin and Brandenburg, pay group 12027, generally binding pay agreement. Security services

    +3.6%

  • Cleaning, German-speaking Switzerland, collective labour agreement (GAV), maintenance cleaning I2027, no increase until 2028

    0%

As of 19 October 2026, commercial cleaning 23 October 2026. The diesel pump price in 2026 is distorted by the temporary cut in energy tax of 14.04 cents per litre (May to June and October to December).
Cost driverPreviousNewChangeAffectsSource
Statutory minimum wage, Germany€13.90 (2026)€14.60 (from 1 January 2027)+5.0%Laundry, logistics, basic servicesFünfte Mindestlohnanpassungsverordnung (Fifth Minimum Wage Adjustment Ordinance)
Commercial cleaning, Germany, wage group 1€15.00 (2026)open: employers offer €15.27 from May 2027, IG BAU demands €17.00+1.8% to +13.3%Commercial cleaningIG BAU on the second round of pay talks, 22 October 2026
Security guarding, Berlin and Brandenburg, pay group 1€15.15 (2026)€15.70 (2027)+3.6%Security servicesBDSW (German security industry association), generally binding collective pay agreement
Diesel, Germany, average price€1.611 per litre (2025 average)€2.235 per litre (Q3 2026 average)+38.7%Courier, parcel, waste disposal, fleetADAC fuel price trends
Cleaning, German-speaking Switzerland, collective labour agreement (GAV), maintenance cleaning ICHF 21.40 (2026)CHF 21.40 (2027), CHF 21.95 (from 2028)2027: 0%, 2028: +2.6%Commercial cleaning, SwitzerlandCollective labour agreement (GAV) for the cleaning industry, 2026 to 2029

Sources on the energy tax cut: EY: Tankrabatt 2.0 (fuel tax cut), May to June 2026 and AUTO BILD: energy tax cut since 1 October 2026.

Figures as a CSV file (licence: CC BY 4.0, source: Konditionswerk)

Check an announced price increase

A cost driver only explains the part of the price that it accounts for. Calculate how much of your service provider’s announced increase it justifies.

Stated in your service provider’s letter.
In cleaning, wages are the largest cost component. Your service provider’s cost calculation gives the exact share.

Result of the check

Justifiable by the cost driver
at most 10.0%
Announced
12.0%
Not explained by the cost driver
2.0 percentage points

Pay agreement still open. Employers are offering 1.8% from May 2027; IG BAU is demanding 13.3%. Until an agreement is reached, the demand is the upper limit.

Even at the upper limit, the cost driver explains at most 10.0%. Ask for the calculation behind the remaining 2.0 percentage points.

Calculation as for a wage adjustment clause: share of the price times change in the cost driver. Figures from the table above. Model calculation, not a substitute for a review of your contract.

What this means for your contracts

Commercial cleaning

Collectively agreed pay increases affect the wage component. Check whether your contract passes them on to the total price. Cleaning costs guide

Security services

Collectively agreed pay rates apply per federal state and activity. Compare the requested increase with the agreed rate at the place of deployment. Security services guide

Courier, express and parcel

Diesel surcharges should follow a transparent formula that also goes down when the diesel price falls. Parcel prices guide

Waste disposal

If prices for paper and cardboard rise, the payment you receive for recyclables should rise with them. Waste disposal guide

How the index is compiled

We collect publicly available collective pay and price data and update it every quarter. From 2027, we will add prices from client projects, only aggregated from at least five companies and without any possibility of identifying individual clients or suppliers.

Before publication, every edition is checked by a responsible person from our team. Their name is given above and in the legal notice.

Next edition in January 2027

We update the figures on this page every quarter. The current edition is also available as a CSV file.

Is your service provider announcing an increase?

We check every announced increase against the relevant pay agreement and index, in the Terms Check or as part of the mandate.

Prefer to talk directly?

Sebastian Dahm
Co-CEO, Product, Sales and Market Data

kontakt@konditionswerk.com
+49 173 3806857

Rinascai GmbH, Zurich. Reply within one business day.